ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 4 PM EST MON DEC 03 2001 OLGA IS CURRENTLY BEING IMPACTED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED OFF THE U.S. COAST EARLIER TODAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. BECAUSE THE CENTER IS STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SOME DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN OLGA BACK TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL 200 MB WIND FORECAST...OLGA SHOULD HAVE WEAKENED TO A MOSTLY NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA BY THAT TIME. THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND AVN MODEL ALL AGREE ON THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE MOTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE ABOVEMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD...AND LEAVE OLGA BEHIND IN 2-3 DAYS. A MOSTLY EASTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A LOOPING MOTION BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. BASED ON THE CURRENT MOVEMENT AND THE LATEST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAKE THIS LOOP AT A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN LATITUDE THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 27.6N 69.5W 35 KTS 12HR VT 04/0600Z 28.0N 68.8W 30 KTS 24HR VT 04/1800Z 28.2N 67.8W 25 KTS 36HR VT 05/0600Z 27.5N 67.8W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 05/1800Z 27.0N 68.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/1800Z 26.0N 70.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW NNNN