ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 AM EST MON DEC 03 2001 OLGA HAS A VIGOROUS BUT LIMITED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE 6Z SHIP REPORT OF 28 KT CLOSE TO BUT OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION...I HAVE TO PRESUME THAT OLGA IS STILL MAINTAINING MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT INCREASING WESTERLIES ARE FAST APPROACHING OLGA...AND WILL BE PRECEDED BY A SHOT OF DRY AIR. THIS ONE-TWO PUNCH OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 18 HOURS WILL CERTAINLY WEAKEN OLGA...AND SHOULD PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO FINISH THE JOB. HOWEVER AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...OLGA HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT CRITTER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/4. THE APPROACHING WESTERLIES SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN OLGA TO THE NORTHEAST SHORTLY. HOWEVER...ONCE THE CONVECTION WEAKENS OLGA WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY HEADING WITH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOOPING MOTION CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT WITH A LARGER LOOP. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 27.8N 69.8W 35 KTS 12HR VT 04/0000Z 28.7N 69.3W 30 KTS 24HR VT 04/1200Z 29.3N 68.0W 25 KTS 36HR VT 05/0000Z 29.5N 67.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 05/1200Z 28.5N 68.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/1200Z 27.0N 70.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW NNNN