ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SUN DEC 02 2001 OVERALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING CLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL BY TAFB AND SAB...AND STILL TROPICAL BY THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY. ALL THREE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AGREE ON 35 KNOTS FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...SO THIS IS USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF OLGAS CIRCULATION. THESE WESTERLIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT- WAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE 18Z RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL...AVN...MODEL INDICATES INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER OLGA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWED BY A RELAXATION IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ALTHOUGH OLGA HAS BEEN A TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE UP TO NOW...IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER IT WILL ABLE TO SURVIVE THE INCREASING SHEAR...AND BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS LATER ON. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED TO ABOUT 7 KT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OFF THE COAST WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ABLE TO CARRY OLGA VERY FAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...HOWEVER THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE NUDGED EASTWARD TO SOME EXTENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OLGAS MOTION WILL PROBABLY BECOME SLOW AND ERRATIC AFTER THE TROUGH BYPASSES THE SYSTEM. IN DEFERENCE TO THE LATEST AVN RUN...THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST DOES NOT LOOP OLGA BACK AS FAR TO THE WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 27.3N 69.7W 35 KTS 12HR VT 03/1200Z 28.2N 69.8W 35 KTS 24HR VT 04/0000Z 29.0N 69.6W 35 KTS 36HR VT 04/1200Z 29.4N 69.0W 35 KTS 48HR VT 05/0000Z 29.0N 68.3W 35 KTS 72HR VT 06/0000Z 28.0N 69.5W 30 KTS NNNN