ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 4 AM EST SUN DEC 02 2001 IT IS RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED OR REFORMED TO THE NORTH. OLGA SEEMS TO BE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW NOW...AND THE CONVECTION IS STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER INTO A BAND. HOWEVER...THIS BAND IS ABOUT 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND THE PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE THAT OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN. DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. HAVING NO NEW DIRECT OBSERVATIONS...I WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SITTING UNDER THE UPPER LOW DOES NOT PROVIDE OLGA MUCH IN THE WAY OF OUTFLOW NEAR THE CENTER...BUT IT DOES PROVIDING A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...SOME LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A NOT-VERY-CONFIDENT 360/6. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES WILL BE ERODING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF OLGA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OLGA TO LIFT NORTHWARD A LITTLE MORE BEFORE THE TROUGH BYPASSES THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TOWARDS THE AVIATION MODEL SOLUTION. THE AVIATION HAS DONE RATHER WELL WITH OLGA LATELY...BEING THE FIRST AMONG THE AVN/UKMET/ GFDL/NOGAPS GROUP TO SLOW THE EARLIER SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND KEEP OLGA OUT OF THE BAHAMAS. A BEND BACK TO THE WEST IS QUITE POSSIBLE BY 72 HOURS...BUT BY THEN THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF OLGA. NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...BUT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KILL OFF OLGA FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BELOW. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 24.6N 69.0W 35 KTS 12HR VT 02/1800Z 25.3N 69.4W 40 KTS 24HR VT 03/0600Z 26.4N 70.0W 40 KTS 36HR VT 03/1800Z 27.5N 70.2W 35 KTS 48HR VT 04/0600Z 28.0N 70.5W 30 KTS...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 05/0600Z 28.5N 71.5W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW NNNN