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TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN DEC 02 2001
 
IT IS RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED OR REFORMED TO
THE NORTH.  OLGA SEEMS TO BE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW NOW...AND THE
CONVECTION IS STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER INTO A BAND.
HOWEVER...THIS BAND IS ABOUT 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND THE
PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE THAT OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN.  DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB.  HAVING NO NEW DIRECT OBSERVATIONS...I WILL KEEP THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SITTING UNDER THE
UPPER LOW DOES NOT PROVIDE OLGA MUCH IN THE WAY OF OUTFLOW NEAR THE
CENTER...BUT IT DOES PROVIDING A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THEREFORE...SOME LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A NOT-VERY-CONFIDENT 360/6.  A SHORT-WAVE 
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES WILL BE 
ERODING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF OLGA OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OLGA TO LIFT NORTHWARD A LITTLE MORE 
BEFORE THE TROUGH BYPASSES THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS 
ONE...TOWARDS THE AVIATION MODEL SOLUTION.  THE AVIATION HAS DONE 
RATHER WELL WITH OLGA LATELY...BEING THE FIRST AMONG THE AVN/UKMET/ 
GFDL/NOGAPS GROUP TO SLOW THE EARLIER SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND KEEP 
OLGA OUT OF THE BAHAMAS.  

A BEND BACK TO THE WEST IS QUITE POSSIBLE BY 72 HOURS...BUT BY THEN 
THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF OLGA.  NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD 
INCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...BUT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE STRONG 
ENOUGH TO KILL OFF OLGA FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BELOW. 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0900Z 24.6N  69.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     02/1800Z 25.3N  69.4W    40 KTS
24HR VT     03/0600Z 26.4N  70.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     03/1800Z 27.5N  70.2W    35 KTS
48HR VT     04/0600Z 28.0N  70.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     05/0600Z 28.5N  71.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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