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TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SAT DEC 01 2001
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.  
THE CONVECTION IS AT A MINIMUM THIS MORNING AND IS LOCATED EAST OF 
THE CENTER.  A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS 30 KNOT WINDS 
UNCONTAMINATED AND A FEW 35 KNOT CONTAMINATED.  THERE ARE SEVERAL 
SHIPS REPORTS WITH 25 KNOTS AND A DRIFTING BUOY HAS 30 KNOTS.  SO 
THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS.   THERE IS CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 
KNOTS OF NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM.  THE SHIPS 
MODEL INTERPRETS THE AVIATION MODEL TO WEAKEN THE SHEAR FOR 12 HOURS 
OR SO AND THEN TO INCREASE IT AGAIN EVEN STRONGER.  SO THE SYSTEM 
COULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE 
AFTER THAT.

THE MOTION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS SINCE YESTERDAYS LAST VISIBLE 
IMAGES IS 230/5...BUT THE MOTION FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS APPEARS TO 
BE ABOUT 270/05  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A WEAKENING OF THE 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THIS 
SHOULD INCREASE THE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION AND DECREASE THE 
WESTWARD COMPONENT.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS FOR CONTINUED SLOW 
FORWARD SPEED AND IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY 
BUT IS STILL LEFT OF THE AVIATION AND GFDL MODELS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/1500Z 22.8N  68.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     02/0000Z 22.8N  69.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     02/1200Z 23.1N  70.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     03/0000Z 23.6N  71.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     03/1200Z 24.2N  72.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     04/1200Z 25.5N  74.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
  
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