ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2001 A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE EDGE. TRMM MICROWAVE DATA STILL SHOW SOME 30 KT SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT THE AREA OF 25-30 KT SPEEDS IS SHRINKING. THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A FEW SPOTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS...HOWEVER THE HIGHER WIND SPEED VALUES APPEAR TO BE RAIN CONTAMINATED. OLGA IS STUBBORNLY HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS...FOR NOW. THE VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM MAY TEMPORARILY DECREASE...BUT IT IS PRESUMED THAT OLGA HAS WEAKENED TOO MUCH TO BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...I.E. A REMNANT LOW...WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALTERNATIVELY...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BECOME ELONGATED AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN A DAY OR SO. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 250/6. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OLGA HAS WEAKENED...RESULTING IN A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED. STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FLOW TO CARRY OLGA...OR ITS REMNANTS...IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TO THE RIGHT OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SOUTH OF THE LATEST AVN MODEL TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 23.4N 68.0W 30 KTS 12HR VT 01/1200Z 23.2N 69.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 02/0000Z 23.0N 70.3W 25 KTS...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 02/1200Z 23.0N 71.5W 25 KTS...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 03/0000Z 23.0N 72.5W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 04/0000Z 23.5N 74.5W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW NNNN