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TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2001
A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE EDGE. TRMM MICROWAVE
DATA STILL SHOW SOME 30 KT SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT THE AREA OF 25-30 KT SPEEDS IS
SHRINKING. THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A FEW SPOTS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS...HOWEVER THE HIGHER WIND SPEED VALUES APPEAR TO BE RAIN
CONTAMINATED. OLGA IS STUBBORNLY HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
STATUS...FOR NOW. THE VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM MAY TEMPORARILY
DECREASE...BUT IT IS PRESUMED THAT OLGA HAS WEAKENED TOO MUCH TO BE
ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO A SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS...I.E. A REMNANT LOW...WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALTERNATIVELY...THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BECOME ELONGATED AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN
A DAY OR SO.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 250/6. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF OLGA HAS WEAKENED...RESULTING IN A SLOWING OF THE
FORWARD SPEED. STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FLOW TO CARRY
OLGA...OR ITS REMNANTS...IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION. THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...TO THE RIGHT OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SOUTH
OF THE LATEST AVN MODEL TRACK.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 23.4N 68.0W 30 KTS
12HR VT 01/1200Z 23.2N 69.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 02/0000Z 23.0N 70.3W 25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 02/1200Z 23.0N 71.5W 25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 03/0000Z 23.0N 72.5W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/0000Z 23.5N 74.5W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
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