[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2001

A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION 
OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE EDGE.  TRMM MICROWAVE 
DATA STILL SHOW SOME 30 KT SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT THE AREA OF 25-30 KT SPEEDS IS 
SHRINKING.  THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A FEW SPOTS OF 30 TO 35 
KNOTS...HOWEVER THE HIGHER WIND SPEED VALUES APPEAR TO BE RAIN 
CONTAMINATED.  OLGA IS STUBBORNLY HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 
STATUS...FOR NOW.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM MAY TEMPORARILY 
DECREASE...BUT IT IS PRESUMED THAT OLGA HAS WEAKENED TOO MUCH TO BE 
ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO A SWIRL OF LOW 
CLOUDS...I.E. A REMNANT LOW...WITHIN 24 HOURS.  ALTERNATIVELY...THE 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BECOME ELONGATED AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN 
A DAY OR SO.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 250/6.  THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH 
AND NORTHWEST OF OLGA HAS WEAKENED...RESULTING IN A SLOWING OF THE 
FORWARD SPEED.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK FOR 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FLOW TO CARRY 
OLGA...OR ITS REMNANTS...IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION.  THE 
CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE 
PREVIOUS ONE...TO THE RIGHT OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SOUTH 
OF THE LATEST AVN MODEL TRACK.  

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0300Z 23.4N  68.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     01/1200Z 23.2N  69.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     02/0000Z 23.0N  70.3W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     02/1200Z 23.0N  71.5W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     03/0000Z 23.0N  72.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     04/0000Z 23.5N  74.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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