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TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2001
 
OLGA APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  A 02Z 
SSMI PASS SHOWED NO SURFACE WINDS ABOVE 30 KNOTS.  THERE WERE SOME 
35 KT VECTORS FROM THE QUIKSCAT THIS MORNING...BUT THEY WERE 
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE SWATH EDGE IN AN AREA WHERE THE PASSIVE 
SSMI DATA SHOWED LOWER WINDS.  THERE IS NO LONGER ENOUGH DEEP 
CONVECTION TO GENERATE A DVORAK DATA-T NUMBER.  OLGA BARELY HAS 
ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THERE 
ARE ALSO HINTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO 
DISTORT IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED WELL AWAY FROM 
THE CENTER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT 
IS MITIGATING AGAINST THE WARMING WATER TEMPERATURES...AND OLGA MAY 
BE CLASSIFIED AS A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS 
EVENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 240/15...THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND THERE HAS 
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING.  THERE IS SOME 
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE AVN AND UKMET AS TO HOW FAST THE RIDGE TO 
THE NORTHWEST OF OLGA WILL WEAKEN...WITH THE AVN STALLING THE 
REMNANTS OF OLGA BEFORE REACHING THE BAHAMAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
IS NOT AS SLOW AND CARRIES A WEAK REMNANT LOW INTO THE BAHAMAS IN 
ABOUT 48 HOURS.  
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/1500Z 24.2N  66.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     01/0000Z 23.5N  69.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     01/1200Z 23.0N  71.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     02/0000Z 23.0N  72.5W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     02/1200Z 23.0N  74.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     03/1200Z 23.0N  76.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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