ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 4 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2001 STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT HAVE SHEARED THE CONVECTION ...WHAT LITTLE REMAINS...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. A 02Z SSMI PASS SHOWED NO SURFACE WINDS ABOVE 30 KNOTS. WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS AT 06Z AND TO 35 KNOTS AT 09Z. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUED WEAKENING AND OLGA SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 240/15. THE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME AS SIX HOURS AGO. THE AVIATION MODEL FORECASTS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM TO WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD SLOW OLGAS FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BRINGS THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 25.3N 65.5W 35 KTS 12HR VT 30/1800Z 24.5N 67.6W 30 KTS 24HR VT 01/0600Z 23.8N 70.0W 25 KTS 36HR VT 01/1800Z 23.5N 71.5W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 02/0600Z 23.5N 73.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 03/0600Z 23.5N 76.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW NNNN