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TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2001
 
STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT HAVE SHEARED THE CONVECTION
...WHAT LITTLE REMAINS...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CENTER.  A 02Z SSMI PASS SHOWED NO SURFACE WINDS ABOVE 30 KNOTS.
WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND
SAB...THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS AT 06Z AND TO
35 KNOTS AT 09Z.    ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUED
WEAKENING AND OLGA SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 240/15.  THE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE
SAME AS SIX HOURS AGO.  THE AVIATION MODEL FORECASTS A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM TO WEAKEN.  THIS SHOULD SLOW
OLGAS FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST.  THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BRINGS THE
REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN 48 TO 72
HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 25.3N  65.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     30/1800Z 24.5N  67.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 23.8N  70.0W    25 KTS
36HR VT     01/1800Z 23.5N  71.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     02/0600Z 23.5N  73.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     03/0600Z 23.5N  76.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
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