ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 PM EST THU NOV 29 2001 THE CENTER OF OLGA REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IS BASED ON A CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER OF 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON. HOWEVER QUIKSCAT AND TRMM DATA SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS MAY BE NO MORE THAN 40 KT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE 20-30 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER OLGA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THE 200 MB WIND FORECAST FROM THE NECEP GLOBAL MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHERLY SHEARING REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. THUS...EVEN THOUGH OLGA IS MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS...UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE DISSIPATING IN A DAY OR SO...I.E. TO BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW CLOUD SWIRL. A FAIRLY RAPID SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES...AS A RESULT OF THE STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OLGA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIDGE WEAKENING WITH TIME...AND THEREFORE THE FORWARD SPEED OF OLGA IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE. A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION OF MOTION IS ALSO FORECAST... FOLLOWING THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE SLOWER NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 25.8N 63.9W 45 KTS 12HR VT 30/1200Z 24.5N 66.0W 35 KTS 24HR VT 01/0000Z 23.8N 68.5W 30 KTS 36HR VT 01/1200Z 23.5N 70.5W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 02/0000Z 23.5N 72.0W 25 KTS...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 03/0000Z 23.5N 75.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW NNNN