HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST THU NOV 29 2001

THE CENTER OF OLGA REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS BASED ON A CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER OF 3.0 FROM BOTH
TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON.  HOWEVER QUIKSCAT AND TRMM DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS MAY BE NO MORE THAN 40 KT.  THERE
CONTINUES TO BE 20-30 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER OLGA AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGES INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  THE 200 MB WIND FORECAST FROM THE NECEP
GLOBAL MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHERLY SHEARING REGIME SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.  THUS...EVEN THOUGH OLGA
IS MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS...UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO BE DISSIPATING IN A DAY OR SO...I.E. TO BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT
LOW CLOUD SWIRL.

A FAIRLY RAPID SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES...AS A RESULT OF THE 
STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. 
COAST AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF 
OLGA.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIDGE WEAKENING WITH 
TIME...AND THEREFORE THE FORWARD SPEED OF OLGA IS EXPECTED TO 
DECREASE.  A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION OF MOTION IS ALSO FORECAST... 
FOLLOWING THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A BIT TO 
THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE SLOWER NEAR THE END OF 
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0300Z 25.8N  63.9W    45 KTS
12HR VT     30/1200Z 24.5N  66.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     01/0000Z 23.8N  68.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     01/1200Z 23.5N  70.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     02/0000Z 23.5N  72.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     03/0000Z 23.5N  75.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN