ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 4 AM EST THU NOV 29 2001 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 220/12. THE AVIATION MODEL MOVES THE STORM SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF AN EROSION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH FROM AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. IN CONTRAST...THE NOGAPS SHOWS A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 3 DAYS. THE GFDL AND UKMET ALSO SHOW A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION IN 2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. EVEN THOUGH DVORAK CURRENT T NUMBERS ARE 4.0...65 KNOTS...DATA T NUMBERS ARE 3.5. AND A 23Z QUIKSCAT SHOWS NO WINDS OVER 45 KNOTS. ALSO CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SO THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY DECREASED TO 60 KNOTS. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE AVIATION MODEL...SHOWS CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 28.9N 59.3W 60 KTS 12HR VT 29/1800Z 27.6N 61.3W 55 KTS 24HR VT 30/0600Z 26.4N 63.5W 50 KTS 36HR VT 30/1800Z 25.9N 66.3W 45 KTS 48HR VT 01/0600Z 25.7N 68.1W 40 KTS 72HR VT 02/0600Z 25.5N 70.5W 35 KTS NNNN