ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 PM EST TUE NOV 27 2001 INFRARED IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED A BIT...HOWEVER THE EYE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...SO THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE AS 24 HOURS AGO...HOWEVER THE SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. ALTHOUGH OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY WARM...COOL AIR IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO INSTABILITY AND THE MAINTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION. ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. HOWEVER AN UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD LIKELY BRING ABOUT A MORE RADID DECREASE IN INTENSITY. AFTER EXECUTING A CYCLONIC LOOP...OLGA IS MEANDERING...AND ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS PRETTY MUCH ISOLATED FROM THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES. THIS LARGER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND BRING OLGA WITH IT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION COMMENCING IN A DAY OR SO. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT SLOWER THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 32.3N 55.7W 80 KTS 12HR VT 28/1200Z 32.3N 55.8W 80 KTS 24HR VT 29/0000Z 32.0N 56.0W 75 KTS 36HR VT 29/1200Z 31.0N 57.0W 75 KTS 48HR VT 30/0000Z 30.0N 58.0W 70 KTS 72HR VT 01/0000Z 28.5N 60.0W 65 KTS NNNN