ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2001 OLGA STILL HAS AN EXCELLENT PRESENTATION ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...TYPICAL OF A HURRICANE. THERE IS A RAGGED EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...A DISTINCT CURVED BAND AND GOOD OUTFLOW. T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 75 KNOTS. THE OCEAN IS COOL...BUT ACCORDING THE THE SHIPS MODEL...THE 200 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A POSITIVE CONTRIBUTION TOWARD INTENSIFICATION. IN ADDITION...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW. THEREFORE...OLGA HAS A CHANCE OF STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...SOUTHWARD-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONES USUALLY WEAKEN. OLGA HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR LOOPING WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING FLOW. AT THIS TIME IS ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TREND. BECAUSE THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE PATTERN RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF A RIDGE TO NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH...WOULD STEER OLGA TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AVN...NOGAPS AND UK GLOBAL MODELS. HIGH SWELLS ARE EXTENDING OUTWARD AND ARE REACHING SOME OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 31.5N 57.0W 75 KTS 12HR VT 28/0000Z 31.5N 57.0W 80 KTS 24HR VT 28/1200Z 31.5N 57.0W 80 KTS 36HR VT 29/0000Z 31.5N 57.0W 80 KTS 48HR VT 29/1200Z 31.0N 57.5W 75 KTS 72HR VT 30/1200Z 29.5N 58.5W 65 KTS NNNN