ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 PM EST MON NOV 26 2001 OLGA HAS STRENGTHENED. THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER- DEFINED AND IT IS EMBEDDED IN A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL...ALBEIT SMALL...CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST HAS NOW BECOME APPARENT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 75 KNOTS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH STRONGER OLGA MIGHT GET. AT THE MOMENT...VERTICAL SHEAR IS LOW...BUT THE SST IS ONLY 23-24 DEG C. THE LATTER VALUE SEEMS A BIT TOO COOL FOR MUCH MORE STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OLGA HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD...BUT THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS MOTION IS NOT LIKELY TO PERSIST. THERE IS...HOWEVER... GREAT DIVERSITY IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM BEING STEERED NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...WHEREAS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A NET SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL SCENARIO DOES NOT SEEM REALISTIC SINCE OLGA DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW...BUT RATHER WITHIN A BROADER-SCALE CYCLONE THAT IS CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AND CALLS FOR A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT...TURING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 32.4N 56.2W 75 KTS 12HR VT 27/1200Z 32.7N 56.5W 80 KTS 24HR VT 28/0000Z 32.7N 56.9W 80 KTS 36HR VT 28/1200Z 32.5N 57.2W 80 KTS 48HR VT 29/0000Z 32.2N 57.5W 75 KTS 72HR VT 30/0000Z 31.5N 58.0W 65 KTS NNNN