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HURRICANE OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST MON NOV 26 2001

OLGA HAS STRENGTHENED.  THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER-
DEFINED AND IT IS EMBEDDED IN A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL...ALBEIT
SMALL...CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST HAS NOW BECOME APPARENT.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 75 KNOTS.  THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH STRONGER OLGA MIGHT GET.  AT
THE MOMENT...VERTICAL SHEAR IS LOW...BUT THE SST IS ONLY 23-24 DEG
C.  THE LATTER VALUE SEEMS A BIT TOO COOL FOR MUCH MORE
STRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN
INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

OLGA HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD...BUT THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES 
THAT THIS MOTION IS NOT LIKELY TO PERSIST.  THERE IS...HOWEVER... 
GREAT DIVERSITY IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM 
BEING STEERED NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...WHEREAS THE 
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A NET SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE FORECAST 
PERIOD.  THE GFDL SCENARIO DOES NOT SEEM REALISTIC SINCE OLGA DOES 
NOT APPEAR TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW...BUT 
RATHER WITHIN A BROADER-SCALE CYCLONE THAT IS CUT OFF FROM THE 
WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE GLOBAL MODEL 
SOLUTIONS AND CALLS FOR A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT...TURING THE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST IN A DAY OR TWO.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST 
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0300Z 32.4N  56.2W    75 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 32.7N  56.5W    80 KTS
24HR VT     28/0000Z 32.7N  56.9W    80 KTS
36HR VT     28/1200Z 32.5N  57.2W    80 KTS
48HR VT     29/0000Z 32.2N  57.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     30/0000Z 31.5N  58.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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