ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON NOV 26 2001 SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE MORNING INDICATES THAT CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE NOW USING THE DVORAK TROPICAL CYCLONE SYSTEM RATHER THAN THE HEBERT-POTEAT SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE SYSTEM. ON THIS BASIS... SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM OLGA WITH 60 KT WINDS. SHIP REPORTS ALONG WITH QUICKSCAT AND SSM/I DATA INDICATE THE CYCLONE STILL RETAINS A LARGE WIND FIELD SOMEWHAT CHARACTERISTIC OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD IS NOT AS LARGE AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 325/6. THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE CENTER OF OLGA SUGGESTS THAT IT HAS BEEN LOOPING AROUND INSIDE THE LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE AS THE ENVELOPE MOVES WESTWARD. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVELOPE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OR PERHAPS NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...SO THE MOST LIKELY TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO IS A CONTINUATION OF THE ERRATIC GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION SEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MOTION AND POSITION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM...SO A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RECURVE OLGA INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS OLGA IS FORMING AN EYE...AND SHOULD THAT PERSIST IT WOULD LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. THE REST OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKIER. THE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE STORM IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN MAY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW STRONG SHEAR TO DEVELOP BY 36-48 HR. THE SHIPS AND UKMET MODELS ARE FORECASTING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH 72 HR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...CALLING FOR OLGA TO BECOME A HURRICANE AND THEN WEAKEN AFTER 48 HR. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT OLGA COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN FORECAST IF THE CURRENTLY FORMING EYE PERSISTS FOR 12-24 HR. SHIP REPORTS INDICATE A VERY LARGE FIELD OF 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH OLGA. SWELLS FROM THE STORM ARE REACHING BERMUDA AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE SWELLS WILL REACH THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...AND REACH THE BAHAMAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 30.7N 56.1W 60 KTS 12HR VT 27/0000Z 31.0N 56.3W 65 KTS 24HR VT 27/1200Z 31.2N 56.7W 65 KTS 36HR VT 28/0000Z 31.3N 57.1W 65 KTS 48HR VT 28/1200Z 31.5N 57.7W 65 KTS 72HR VT 29/1200Z 31.5N 59.0W 60 KTS NNNN