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TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON NOV 26 2001

SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE MORNING INDICATES THAT CONVECTION
HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL
STORM TWO.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
AFWA ARE NOW USING THE DVORAK TROPICAL CYCLONE SYSTEM RATHER THAN
THE HEBERT-POTEAT SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE SYSTEM.  ON THIS BASIS...
SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM OLGA WITH 60 KT
WINDS.  SHIP REPORTS ALONG WITH QUICKSCAT AND SSM/I DATA INDICATE
THE CYCLONE STILL RETAINS A LARGE WIND FIELD SOMEWHAT CHARACTERISTIC
OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD IS NOT AS LARGE
AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 325/6.  THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE CENTER
OF OLGA SUGGESTS THAT IT HAS BEEN LOOPING AROUND INSIDE THE LARGE
CYCLONIC ENVELOPE AS THE ENVELOPE MOVES WESTWARD.  LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVELOPE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OR PERHAPS 
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...SO THE MOST LIKELY
TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO IS A CONTINUATION OF THE ERRATIC GENERALLY
WESTWARD MOTION SEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS IS REFLECTED
IN THE TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT MOTION AND POSITION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STORM...SO A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION IS POSSIBLE
IN THE SHORT-TERM AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE NHC HURRICANE
GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO RECURVE OLGA INTO THE WESTERLIES.
 
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS OLGA IS FORMING AN EYE...AND
SHOULD THAT PERSIST IT WOULD LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE
ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.  THE REST OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT
TRICKIER.  THE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THE STORM IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN MAY MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW STRONG SHEAR TO DEVELOP BY 36-48 HR.  THE SHIPS
AND UKMET MODELS ARE FORECASTING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH 72 HR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...CALLING FOR OLGA TO BECOME A HURRICANE
AND THEN WEAKEN AFTER 48 HR.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT OLGA
COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN FORECAST IF THE CURRENTLY FORMING EYE
PERSISTS FOR 12-24 HR.

SHIP REPORTS INDICATE A VERY LARGE FIELD OF 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH OLGA.  SWELLS FROM THE STORM ARE REACHING BERMUDA
AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  THE SWELLS WILL REACH THE
ISLANDS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...AND
REACH THE BAHAMAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/1500Z 30.7N  56.1W    60 KTS
12HR VT     27/0000Z 31.0N  56.3W    65 KTS
24HR VT     27/1200Z 31.2N  56.7W    65 KTS
36HR VT     28/0000Z 31.3N  57.1W    65 KTS
48HR VT     28/1200Z 31.5N  57.7W    65 KTS
72HR VT     29/1200Z 31.5N  59.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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