ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 4 AM EST MON NOV 26 2001 ON THE LARGE SCALE THINGS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE AS THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE THAT OF A HYBRID OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...WHICH HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ATTEMPTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KT BASED ON SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS OF 55 TO 65 KT AND THE EARLIER SHIP REPORT OF 55 KT NEAR THE CENTER. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK THERE IS STILL NO EVIDENCE OF OUTFLOW AWAY FROM THE CENTER...AND GIVEN THAT THE SSTS ARE MARGINAL...NO LARGE CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED. STILL...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT EYE FEATURE WOULD LIKELY SIGNAL THE TRANSITION TO A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE WIND RADII CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST TO SHRINK SUBSTANTIALLY. THIS ASSUMES THAT THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS EXPECTED AND THAT THE CYCLONE SEPARATES FROM THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS TO ITS NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES IN A LIGHT STEERING ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AT ALL LEVELS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY. THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS VERY DIVERSE. THE AVIATION AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ONLY A SLOW MEANDERING TRACK OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL TAKES THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD AT INCREASING SPEED. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTER WEAKENS. THE GFDL TRACK IS AN APPARENT RESPONSE TO THIS...BUT IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE CONVECTION WILL BE VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO RESPOND TO THIS UPPER-LEVEL STEERING INFLUENCE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC IS ENHANCED AHEAD OF A MAJOR TROUGH FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A WESTWARD MOTION BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 30.2N 55.6W 60 KTS 12HR VT 26/1800Z 30.3N 55.8W 65 KTS 24HR VT 27/0600Z 30.5N 56.0W 65 KTS 36HR VT 27/1800Z 30.5N 56.0W 65 KTS 48HR VT 28/0600Z 30.5N 56.0W 65 KTS 72HR VT 29/0600Z 30.5N 57.5W 60 KTS NNNN