ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2001 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE APPARENT CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. EVEN THOUGH MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A WARM CORE...DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT BEEN VERY IMPRESSIVE. ALSO...THE AREA OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH COOLER AIR...SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME BAROCLINICITY IN THE ENVIRONMENT. QUIKSCAT AND SHIP DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO BE VERY LARGE OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND THE SST IS ABOUT 25 DEG C. THEREFORE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN...AND BECOME MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS TO ITS NORTH WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO. THE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC AND SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. SINCE THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE STRONGER STEERING WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE QUITE SLOWLY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODEL CONSENSUS. OBSERVATIONS FROM A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN WCOB...WHICH HAS BEEN NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...HAVE BEEN USED TO ADJUST THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DOWNWARD. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 30.0N 55.7W 60 KTS 12HR VT 26/1200Z 30.0N 56.2W 60 KTS 24HR VT 27/0000Z 30.2N 56.8W 65 KTS 36HR VT 27/1200Z 30.5N 57.5W 65 KTS 48HR VT 28/0000Z 30.2N 58.2W 65 KTS 72HR VT 29/0000Z 29.5N 59.0W 60 KTS NNNN