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SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2001
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE APPARENT CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. EVEN THOUGH MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A WARM CORE...DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT
BEEN VERY IMPRESSIVE. ALSO...THE AREA OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH COOLER
AIR...SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME BAROCLINICITY IN THE ENVIRONMENT.
QUIKSCAT AND SHIP DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO BE
VERY LARGE OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. VERTICAL SHEAR IS
RELATIVELY WEAK AND THE SST IS ABOUT 25 DEG C. THEREFORE THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN...AND BECOME MORE
TROPICAL IN NATURE. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME
SEPARATED FROM THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS TO ITS NORTH WITHIN 24 HOURS
OR SO.
THE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC AND SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. SINCE THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE
STRONGER STEERING WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE
QUITE SLOWLY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODEL CONSENSUS.
OBSERVATIONS FROM A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN WCOB...WHICH HAS BEEN NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...HAVE BEEN USED TO ADJUST THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE DOWNWARD.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0300Z 30.0N 55.7W 60 KTS
12HR VT 26/1200Z 30.0N 56.2W 60 KTS
24HR VT 27/0000Z 30.2N 56.8W 65 KTS
36HR VT 27/1200Z 30.5N 57.5W 65 KTS
48HR VT 28/0000Z 30.2N 58.2W 65 KTS
72HR VT 29/0000Z 29.5N 59.0W 60 KTS
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