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SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2001

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE APPARENT CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE 
CYCLONE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  EVEN THOUGH MICROWAVE DATA 
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A WARM CORE...DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT 
BEEN VERY IMPRESSIVE.  ALSO...THE AREA OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS TO 
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH COOLER 
AIR...SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME BAROCLINICITY IN THE ENVIRONMENT.  
QUIKSCAT AND SHIP DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO BE 
VERY LARGE OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS 
RELATIVELY WEAK AND THE SST IS ABOUT 25 DEG C.  THEREFORE THERE IS 
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN...AND BECOME MORE 
TROPICAL IN NATURE.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS 
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME 
SEPARATED FROM THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS TO ITS NORTH WITHIN 24 HOURS 
OR SO.

THE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC AND SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  SINCE THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE 
STRONGER STEERING WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE 
QUITE SLOWLY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK 
FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT 
WITH THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODEL CONSENSUS.

OBSERVATIONS FROM A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN WCOB...WHICH HAS BEEN NEAR 
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...HAVE BEEN USED TO ADJUST THE CENTRAL 
PRESSURE DOWNWARD. 

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z 30.0N  55.7W    60 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z 30.0N  56.2W    60 KTS
24HR VT     27/0000Z 30.2N  56.8W    65 KTS
36HR VT     27/1200Z 30.5N  57.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     28/0000Z 30.2N  58.2W    65 KTS
72HR VT     29/0000Z 29.5N  59.0W    60 KTS
 
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