ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 4 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2001 THE CORE OF THE STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE THE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF CONVECTION...SYMMETRY...AND WARM TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. THE CORE CONVECTION IS ALSO SEPARATED FROM THE NON-TROPICAL WEATHER TO THE EAST. BUT AS A PRACTICAL MATTER...THE 34- AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII EXTEND SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTH WITHOUT CLEAR EVIDENCE OF SEPARATION. SO THE CLASSIFICATION WILL REMAIN SUBTROPICAL FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE WIND RADII FORECAST SHOWS A SMALL SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD AT 24 HOURS. THIS ASSUMES THAT THE CORE WILL CONTINUE TO SEPARATE FROM THE STRONG WINDS FAR FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/14 BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOURS OF MOTION. THIS IS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD THAN EXPECTED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE GFDL...AVN AND NOGAPS ALL SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWED BY RESUMING A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING OVE THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE AVN ACTUALLY EXECUTES AN ANTICYLONIC LOOP. BUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SLOW AS THE STORM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES FOR MANY DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO SLOW EXCEPT FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AND SHOWS THIS CHANGE IN DIRECTION BUT WITH LESS AMPLITUDE THAN THE GUIDANCE. THE SHIP WCOB WAS JUST WEST OF THE CENTER AT 18Z AND REPORTED 55 KNOTS...990 MB...AND 33 FT SEAS. THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. BEING CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES ALSO MEANS MINIMAL VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE POSSIBILITY OF INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO 65 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL AND SHIPS GO TO 75 KNOTS. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANY TREND IN THE CONVECTION AT PRESENT. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 30.7N 55.7W 60 KTS 12HR VT 26/0600Z 30.5N 57.5W 60 KTS 24HR VT 26/1800Z 30.6N 58.5W 65 KTS 36HR VT 27/0600Z 30.8N 59.1W 65 KTS 48HR VT 27/1800Z 30.7N 59.7W 65 KTS 72HR VT 28/1800Z 30.3N 60.3W 60 KTS NNNN