ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2001 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE INNER CORE OF THE STORM CONSISTS OF TWO INNER-LOCKING BANDS. THIS WARM CORE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SEPARATING FROM THE OUTER NON-SYMMETRIC BAND TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WHICH CONSTITUTES THE NON-TROPICAL PART OF THE STORM. THE CLASSIFICATION WILL REMAIN SUBTROPICAL...UNTIL AND IF A CLEAR DISTINCTION CAN BE MADE BETWEEN THE 34 KNOT WIND RADII OF THE INNER CORE AND THE NON TROPICAL WEATHER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13 BASED ON PAST 18 HOURS. A SHORTER PERIOD MOTION MIGHT BE FASTER. THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE SHOWS SLOW MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH DISAGREEMENT IN DIRECTION. A SLOW MOSTLY WESTWARD FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING THE WIND SPEED TO 75 TO 80 KNOTS WHILE THE AVIATION AND UKMET MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED. THE OFF FORECAST TO 65 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS IS ALSO A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE. THE WIND RADII ARE REDUCED TO A SMALL SYMMETRIC SHAPE IN 24 HOURS TO REFLECT THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE NON-TROPICAL PORTION OF THE WIND FIELD WILL SEPARATE OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 31.8N 53.9W 55 KTS 12HR VT 26/0000Z 31.8N 55.4W 60 KTS 24HR VT 26/1200Z 32.0N 56.4W 65 KTS 36HR VT 27/0000Z 32.3N 57.4W 65 KTS 48HR VT 27/1200Z 32.2N 58.3W 60 KTS 72HR VT 28/1200Z 32.0N 59.0W 60 KTS NNNN