ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SAT NOV 24 2001 SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO PRESENTS A CLASSICAL HYBRID APPEARANCE THIS EVENING. ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE SYSTEM SHOWS EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER BRANCHING OUT INTO A WARM FROM AND COLD FROM NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. COLD-AIR STRATUS IS PRESENT TO THE NORTH OF THE OCCLUDED AND WARM FRONTS BUT IS NOT CURRENTLY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ON THE SMALLER SCALE...THE SYSTEM LOOKS MORE TROPICAL...WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDING AND EVIDENCE OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AT UPPER LEVELS. THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND PREVIOUS SHIP REPORTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE TRICKY...AS THE CENTER MAY BE PERFORMING A LOOP INSIDE THE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/9. LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STORM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS THE SYSTEM CUTS OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND DEEP- LAYER RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE IS ALREADY STARTING TO BUILD. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE INDICATES A MORE NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO THE INPUT INITIAL MOTION. BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IF THE CURRENT MOTION IS PART OF A LOOP...THE FORECAST TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST IN SUBSEQUENT PACKAGES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE TRICKY. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE OUTER ENVELOPE OF THE STORM...AND THEY SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THUS...THE STORM IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN SOMETHING CLOSE TO ITS CURRENT INTENSITY EVEN IF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION FIZZLES AND THE CYCLONE AGAIN BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THIS SCENARIO IS THE ONE REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF THE CONVECTIVE INNER CORE REMAINS ISOLATED FROM COLD AIR AND VERTICAL SHEAR...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE AND SHIPS MODELS...THEN IT COULD INTENSIFY INDEPENDENTLY OF THE REST OF THE CYCLONE AND MIGHT EVEN COMPLETE THE TRANSFORMATION INTO A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE. THIS SCENARIO WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT THE STORM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL SIGNS OF TROPICAL TRANSITION. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 31.5N 50.6W 50 KTS 12HR VT 25/1200Z 32.0N 51.5W 50 KTS 24HR VT 26/0000Z 32.5N 52.9W 50 KTS 36HR VT 26/1200Z 32.8N 54.2W 50 KTS 48HR VT 27/0000Z 33.0N 55.5W 50 KTS 72HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 57.0W 50 KTS NNNN