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TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2001
 
NOEL IS RAPIDLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS INDICATED BY THE 
LACK OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALSO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY AND RANGE FROM 30 KT 
FROM TAFB TO 45 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DECREASED 
TO 55 KT BASED ON A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE WIND FIELD...WHICH IS 
SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL NEARBY SHIPS INDICATING A LARGE RADIUS OF 30 TO 
40 KT WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/17. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE 
NORTHWARD AS IS COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY 
WINDS AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS 
SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA AND EVENTUALLY CAPTURE NOEL NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND 
IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. 

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ALL TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY AS 
IT MOVES OVER COLD SSTS OF LESS THAN 20C.  HOWEVER...BAROCLINIC 
EFFECTS FROM THE APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL LOW SHOULD HELP TO KEEP 
THE SYSTEM NEAR STORM STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0900Z 42.3N  49.0W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT     06/1800Z 45.2N  48.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     07/0600Z 50.2N  48.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     07/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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