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TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST MON NOV 05 2001

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS WEAKENING...SO THE INTENSITY IS 
REDUCED TO 60 KNOTS.  THE CYCLONE IS NEARING COLD WATER SO FURTHER 
WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  IN FACT...AS NOTED EARLIER...NOEL COULD BE 
GONE SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE SINCE THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS IT 
BECOMING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

THE MOTION IS NOW SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF NORTH...AND THUS THE TRACK
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
THIS IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE BUT IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN AND GFDL TRACKS.  NOEL SHOULD
ACCELERATE...FOLLOWING THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH.

THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADIUS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAS 
BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 40.4N  49.5W    60 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 43.0N  49.0W    55 KTS
24HR VT     07/0000Z 47.5N  48.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     07/1200Z 53.0N  48.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     08/0000Z...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED
  
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