ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE NOEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EST MON NOV 05 2001
SHIP WRYG REPORTED 65 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW
ABOUT 60 NM FROM THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS A BROKEN RING OF
CONVECTION REASONABLY NEAR THE CENTER...AND HAS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
WARM SIGNATURE IN THE MOST RECENT AMSU DATA FROM THE CIMSS WEB PAGE.
ON THIS BASIS THE SYSTEM IS CONSIDERED A HURRICANE AND ADVISORIES
ARE INITIATED.
NOEL IS MOVING AT 360/10 AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS
GENERAL PATH WITH SOME ACCELERATION AS A SEPARATE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE STRENGTHENS SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NOEL SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED BY THIS EXTRATROPICAL LOW...BUT
LIKELY AFTER BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL ITSELF AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER
MUCH COLDER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE AVN AND
UKMET SOLUTIONS...AND INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM COULD PASS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
THERE.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/1600Z 38.5N 50.4W 65 KTS
12HR VT 06/0000Z 40.0N 50.4W 65 KTS
24HR VT 06/1200Z 44.0N 51.0W 60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 07/0000Z 51.0N 50.0W 55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 07/1200Z...ABSORBED
NNNN
Problems?