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HURRICANE NOEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EST MON NOV 05 2001
 
SHIP WRYG REPORTED 65 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW 
ABOUT 60 NM FROM THE CENTER.  THE SYSTEM HAS A BROKEN RING OF 
CONVECTION REASONABLY NEAR THE CENTER...AND HAS A WEAK MID-LEVEL 
WARM SIGNATURE IN THE MOST RECENT AMSU DATA FROM THE CIMSS WEB PAGE. 
ON THIS BASIS THE SYSTEM IS CONSIDERED A HURRICANE AND ADVISORIES 
ARE INITIATED. 

NOEL IS MOVING AT 360/10 AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW 
CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND.  NOEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS 
GENERAL PATH WITH SOME ACCELERATION AS A SEPARATE EXTRATROPICAL 
CYCLONE STRENGTHENS SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
NOEL SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED BY THIS EXTRATROPICAL LOW...BUT 
LIKELY AFTER BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL ITSELF AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER 
MUCH COLDER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE AVN AND 
UKMET SOLUTIONS...AND INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM COULD PASS CLOSE 
ENOUGH TO EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
THERE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/1600Z 38.5N  50.4W    65 KTS
12HR VT     06/0000Z 40.0N  50.4W    65 KTS
24HR VT     06/1200Z 44.0N  51.0W    60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     07/0000Z 51.0N  50.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     07/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
 
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