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HURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2001
 
MICHELLE LOOKS LIKE A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL STORM ON SATELLITE IMAGES
AND IS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  BECAUSE MICHELLE
WAS A STRONG HURRICANE AND WINDS TAKE TIME TO SPIN DOWN...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS.  THE HURRICANE WILL
PROBABLY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY IF SATELLITE IMAGES
AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE IT IS ONE.  MOST
LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS INDICATED BY THE AVN GLOBAL MODEL.

THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION ON SATELLITE APPEARS TO BE MOVING 065/21.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/1500Z 27.5N  68.4W    65 KTS
12HR VT     07/0000Z 28.5N  65.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     07/1200Z 30.5N  57.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     08/0000Z 35.0N  50.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     08/1200Z 40.0N  40.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

 
 
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