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HURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON NOV 05 2001
 
BASED ON A USAF RECON FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 83 KNOTS AND A SHIP 
REPORT OF 87 KNOTS IN THE BAHAMAS...THE 12Z WIND SPEED IS 80 KNOTS 
AND THE 15Z WIND SPEED IN 75 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES 51 
KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR BASED ON THE AVIATION MODEL ANALYSIS AND THE 
SURFACE LOW IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS 
IS A SITUATION CALLING FOR WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH THE STRONG WINDS 
ARE PERSISTING.

THE 06Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE SHEARED LOW LEVEL CENTER MOVING 
SLOWLY EASTWARD.  THE OTHER MODELS SHOW MICHELLE ACCELERATING 
NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGING WITH OTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOWS IN THE NEXT 
72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND SOUTH OF THE 
MODEL CONSENSUS...GIVING A SLIGHT WEIGHT TO THE AVIATION MODEL.

 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/1500Z 24.8N  77.2W    75 KTS
12HR VT     06/0000Z 25.9N  75.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     06/1200Z 27.0N  72.1W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     07/0000Z 28.0N  68.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     07/1200Z 30.0N  64.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     08/1200Z 35.0N  57.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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