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HURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN NOV 04 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGES DO NOT SHOW A DISTINCT EYE AS IT HAD 24 HOURS AGO.
A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN IN THE EYE OF MICHELLE AND THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 950 MB WITH 700 MB MAX WINDS OF 134 KNOTS.
ALTHOUGH THIS SUPPORTS 120 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE...THE STEP FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SHOWS ONLY ABOUT 100 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO VALUES. THE
CURRENT LARGE EYE MAY CONTRACT BEFORE LANDFALL OVER CUBA RESULTING
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSIFICATION.
 
FIXES FROM THE RECON AND RADAR FROM CUBA INDICATE THAT MICHELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE EASTWARD MOVING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE MICHELLE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SCENARIO
PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL BRINGS THE CORE
OF THE HURRICANE TO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD A
WESTWARD BIAS WITH THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE IS PASSING NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE ZAPATA
PENINSULA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY. IT APPEARS
THAT THE INTENSE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MISS HAVANA CITY.
MICHELLE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON MONDAY.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/1500Z 21.3N  82.1W   115 KTS
12HR VT     05/0000Z 22.7N  80.9W   115 KTS
24HR VT     05/1200Z 24.3N  78.9W   100 KTS
36HR VT     06/0000Z 26.5N  74.5W    90 KTS
48HR VT     06/1200Z 29.0N  70.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     07/1200Z 35.0N  59.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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