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HURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SAT NOV 03 2001
 
DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE DECREASED A LITTLE...SUGGESTING
THAT MICHELLE MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE AS EARLIER TODAY.  IN FACT...THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 944 MB.  HOWEVER...MAX FLIGHT LEVEL
WIND AT 700 MB FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 128 KNOTS
AND SURFACE WINDS FROM A DROP OF 115 KNOTS.  SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 115 KNOTS.  FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE VERY
COMMON WITH INTENSE HURRICANES AND ARE NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH
EYEWALL CYCLES...WHICH MICHELLE APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES CUBA.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE
SHOW DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPING AROUND THE EYE.

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN.
WATER VAPOR IMAGES ALREADY SHOW THE UPPER-TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS FEATURE WHICH HAS BEEN
FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS IS SUPPOSED TO LIFT THE HURRICANE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST.  IN FACT...LATEST FIXES INDICATE THAT
MICHELLE IS ALREADY MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 5 KNOTS.  MICHELLE
SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK AND ITS CORE SHOULD PASSING
VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH EARLY SUNDAY AND CROSS MAINLAND CUBA
LATE SUNDAY.  THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE NCEP AVN GLOBAL MODEL AND DISREGARDS THE GFDL MODEL WHICH
KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK.

MICHELLE SHOULD INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 48 HOURS AND BEGIN 
TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0300Z 20.0N  83.5W   115 KTS
12HR VT     04/1200Z 21.3N  82.8W   120 KTS
24HR VT     05/0000Z 23.0N  81.7W   110 KTS
36HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N  79.0W   100 KTS
48HR VT     06/0000Z 26.0N  75.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     07/0000Z 32.5N  64.0W    60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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