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HURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SAT NOV 03 2001

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MICHELLE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED
TO 940 MB...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB HAVE BEEN AS HIGH
AS 121 KT.  WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ON DROPSONDES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH
AS 138 KT.  WHILE THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 127 KT
FROM AFWA AND 115 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT
DATA...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 110 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC.  THE EYE WOBBLED
WESTWARD DURING THE NIGHT...AND DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS THERE HAS
BEEN A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/4 USING
A 24 HR MOTION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE MICHELLE.  LARGE-SCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY.  NHC HURRICANE
GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY FIRST MOVING MICHELLE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTH...THEN TURNING IT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST.
MOST GUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL OR WESTERN CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THE UKMET AND AVN ARE BOTH
TO THE SOUTH OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS.  HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND GFDN
CONTINUE TO TAKE THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD...CALLING FOR LANDFALL
IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  IN VIEW OF THIS...AND THE MORE WESTWARD
POSITION OF MICHELLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CHANGE LITTLE
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT LIES ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF THE MAIN
CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE.
 
HOW STRONG CAN MICHELLE GET?  THE RECON-REPORTED INTENSITY IS BELOW
THAT OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES...SO AS A FIRST GUESS MICHELLE 
COULD PEAK IN THE 115-125 KT RANGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL
FOR A 120 KT PEAK IN 12-24 HR.  BEYOND THAT...LARGE-SCALE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND EXPOSE MICHELLE TO WESTERLY SHEAR.  THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH WEAKENS THE STORM AFTER
24 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GO WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT MICHELLE COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0900Z 19.0N  84.4W   110 KTS
12HR VT     03/1800Z 19.8N  84.4W   120 KTS
24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.9N  84.3W   120 KTS
36HR VT     04/1800Z 22.0N  83.6W   110 KTS
48HR VT     05/0600Z 23.3N  81.4W   100 KTS
72HR VT     06/0600Z 26.5N  74.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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