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HURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI NOV 02 2001
 
RECON IS FINDING FLIGHT-LEVEL...850 MB...WINDS OF 85 TO 90
KT...WHICH SUPPORTS 75 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND A PAIR OF EYEWALL
DROPS GIVE ABOUT THE SAME VALUE.  HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE IS DOWN TO
967 MB AND THE WINDS SHOULD BE RESPONDING VERY SOON...MAYBE EVEN BY
THE TIME YOU READ THIS.  MICHELLE IS ON ITS WAY TO MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND
GFDL GUIDANCE.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING SHEAR AND 
INTERACTION WITH CUBA WILL BE INHIBITING FACTORS.

THE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC BUT AVERAGES TO 360/3.  THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OR BASIC FORECAST.  AS
DISCUSSED THIS MORNING...ONE IMPORTANT FACTOR IN HOW CLOSE MICHELLE
COMES TO SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE LASTEST VERSIONS OF THE
UKMET AND AVN...WITH THE AVN A SHADE NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND
THE UKMET SHIFTED SOUTHWARD.  IN ADDITION...THE NOGAPS IS ALSO IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE AVN AND UKMET.  THE GFDL IS THE ONLY
GUIDANCE THAT TAKES THE CENTER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THIS MODEL
HAS HAD A STRONG WESTWARD BIAS WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/2100Z 18.2N  84.1W    75 KTS
12HR VT     03/0600Z 18.8N  84.3W    85 KTS
24HR VT     03/1800Z 19.7N  84.4W   100 KTS
36HR VT     04/0600Z 20.8N  84.1W   100 KTS
48HR VT     04/1800Z 22.0N  83.5W    95 KTS
72HR VT     05/1800Z 24.5N  79.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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