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TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST THU NOV 01 2001
 
THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA...BUT MICHELLE HAS BEEN 
MAINTAINING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING... 
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SOME SOUTHERLY OR 
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS.  BASED ON PREVIOUS TRENDS AND SATELLITE 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT AT 12Z...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET 
TO 60 KT.  RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL TELL US MORE.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...EVEN FOR RAPID
STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS 
GUIDANCE...AND BRINGS MICHELLE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN TWO 
DAYS. 

THE CENTER POSITION IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WITH EVEN VISIBLE 
IMAGERY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MICHELLE HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE 
LEFT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 330/6.  STEERING IS 
CURRENTLY BEING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO AND HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST 
THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A LARGE CUTOFF DIGS SOUTH OUT THE 
MID-LATITUDES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THIS WILL COMBINE WITH 
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO GRADUALLY TURN MICHELLE TO THE 
RIGHT NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IT IS NOT YET CLEAR HOW 
SHARP A TURN MICHELLE WILL MAKE...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOUR TO FIVE DAY 
TIME FRAME.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/1500Z 17.2N  83.9W    60 KTS
12HR VT     02/0000Z 18.0N  84.4W    70 KTS
24HR VT     02/1200Z 19.0N  84.9W    80 KTS
36HR VT     03/0000Z 19.8N  85.0W    85 KTS
48HR VT     03/1200Z 20.5N  85.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     04/1200Z 22.0N  84.0W    95 KTS
 
 
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