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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED OCT 31 2001

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE LACKING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY...INCLUDING THE TWO-CHANNEL
NIGHT-TIME IR COMBO...INDICATE LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER.
ALTHOUGH STEERING CURRENTS HAVE REMAINED WEAK...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION AND CAUSE A SLOW
NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION WITHIN 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER THE STEERING FLOW
IS NOT LIKELY TO BECOME VERY STRONG ANY TIME SOON...SINCE THE
CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE LATEST
AVN AND U.K.  MET.  OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH THE AVN TRACK SHIFTING TO THE LEFT OF THAT
FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN AND THE U.K.  MODEL SHIFTING A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT.  HOWEVER THE LATTER MODEL...AND THE NOGAPS...STILL SHOW
MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...FORCING A MOTION MORE TOWARDS EASTERN YUCATAN.  THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND
CLOSE TO THE LATEST AVN OUTPUT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE
LATE-SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONES HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO BE VERY FICKLE WITH
REGARD TO TRACK.

THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNABLE TO STRENGTHEN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF 
LAND...BUT IS MAINTAINING A FAIRLY HEALTHY CIRCULATION.  UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW IS WEAK OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE DEPRESSION BUT 
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO FAVOR STRENGTHENING...ONCE THE CENTER 
IS ABLE TO GET OUT OVER THE WATER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS 
ADVISORY IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS AGAIN MORE 
CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS OR GFDL GUIDANCE...OWING TO THE 
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LOCATION AND ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM BY THE 
END OF THE PERIOD.

THE BIG CONCERN FOR NOW IS THE SEVERE FLOODING THAT UNDOUBTEDLY 
CONTINUES TO OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DEPRESSION.  THIS 
UNDERSCORES THE POINT THAT TROPICAL CYCLONES DO NOT NEED TO HAVE 
STRONG WINDS TO BE DANGEROUS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0900Z 14.0N  83.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     31/1800Z 14.7N  84.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     01/0600Z 15.4N  84.3W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     01/1800Z 16.3N  84.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     02/0600Z 17.4N  84.7W    45 KTS
72HR VT     03/0600Z 20.0N  85.0W    60 KTS
 
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