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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST TUE OCT 30 2001

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT A FORMAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION IS
NOT POSSIBLE SINCE THE SYSTEM IS INLAND.  THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY ONLY OCCURRING
OVER THE WATER WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  NO
STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND.
ASSUMING THAT THE SYSTEM REACHES THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN ABOUT 24
HOURS...INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND THAT TIME.  LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST BECAUSE OF WHERE THE CYCLONE MIGHT END UP...AND
WHAT KIND OF ENVIRONMENT IT FINDS ITSELF IN.

THERE ARE NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO HELP LOCATE THE CENTER...BUT 
SATELLITE-BASED POSITION ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB MIAMI AND SAB 
WASHINGTON INDICATE THAT IT IS LOCATED IS INLAND AND A LITTLE WEST 
OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION.  HOWEVER THE DEPRESSION IS PROBABLY 
DRIFTING ERRATICALLY...AND INITIAL MOVEMENT IS ASSUMED TO BE 
STATIONARY.  THE AVN MODEL DEVELOPS A SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING 
FLOW...BETWEEN AN ANTICYLCONE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND A 
CYCLONE NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS 
WOULD INDUCE A MOSTLY NORTHWARD MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER 
THE U.K. MET OFFICE AND NOGAPS GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TRACK 
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE 
AVN SOLUTION.  BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY 
OF THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...AND 
TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC 
WESTERLIES.

FOR NOW...THE BIGGEST DANGER OF THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER 
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND THE ASSOCIATED FLOODING/MUD SLIDES.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 13.9N  84.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     30/1800Z 15.0N  84.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     31/0600Z 16.0N  85.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     31/1800Z 17.2N  85.3W    35 KTS
48HR VT     01/0600Z 18.3N  85.4W    40 KTS
72HR VT     02/0600Z 20.5N  85.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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