HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2001
 
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND A CENTER OF CIRCULATION 
ON THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1005 MB.  
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK BUT BROAD CIRCULATION...WITH MOST OF 
THE CONVECTION ORGANIZED IN A BAND NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE 
AIRCRAFT FOUND LOW-LEVEL WINDS OF 37 KT IN THAT CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY.  THE DEPRESSION IS IN 
A WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW PATTERN...SO MOTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS 
LIKELY TO BE SLOW.  GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER 
LAND...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER COULD REFORM TO THE 
NORTH IF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS MAINTAINED THERE.  MOST OF THE 
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE 
DAYS.  THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST...BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO THE WESTERN 
TIP OF CUBA...WHILE THE NOGAPS MODEL KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE AVN AND UKMET 
SOLUTIONS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER 
LAND...BUT THE CIRCULATION IS LARGE AND WILL BE SLOW TO WIND DOWN.  
ONCE IT GETS BACK OVER WATER...THE DEPRESSION COULD FIND ITSELF 
UNDER A HIGHLY DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT WOULD FAVOR 
INTENSIFICATION...AS LONG AS IT STAYS SOUTH OF THE STRONGEST UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/2100Z 13.0N  83.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     30/0600Z 13.7N  83.8W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     30/1800Z 14.7N  84.1W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     31/0600Z 15.9N  84.7W    30 KTS...OVER WATER
48HR VT     31/1800Z 17.0N  85.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     01/1800Z 19.0N  85.5W    55 KTS  
 
 
NNNN