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TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE OCT 30 2001

MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER OF LORENZO HAS PARTED
COMPANY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION AND IS NOW EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 35 KT...SO THAT WILL REMAIN THE MAXIMUM
INTENSITY.  GIVEN THE CURRENT APPEARANCE AND AN UPPER LEVEL WIND
PATTERN THAT DOES NOT LOOK THAT FAVORABLE...LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF LORENZO'S LIFE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/18...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS EVEN
MORE TO THE NORTH.  LORENZO IS RECURVING IN FRONT OF A VIGOROUS
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND FRONTAL LOW.  THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR
THE STORM TO TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST BEFORE BEING
ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL LOW IN 24-36 HR. 
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/1500Z 31.9N  45.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     31/0000Z 34.5N  44.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     31/1200Z 37.6N  41.9W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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