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TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST TUE OCT 30 2001

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KNOTS.  THERE IS A WINDOW OF
ABOUT 24 HOURS AVAILABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...UNTIL THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.  IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...LORENZO IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH...APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...IS GRADUALLY 
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LORENZO.  THEREFORE THE 
STORMS HEADING SHOULD CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE RIGHT DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS.  LORENZO WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE DUE TO THE FLOW ON 
THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 29.9N  45.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     30/1800Z 32.0N  45.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     31/0600Z 34.5N  44.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     31/1800Z 37.0N  41.0W    40 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     01/0600Z...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED
 
 
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