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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON OCT 29 2001
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MAINTAINING CONVECTION IN ITS NORTH-EAST QUADRANT.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 AND 25
KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL 
REMAIN AT 30 KT.
 
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  THE 
DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES.  THUS A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY
RECURVATURE...IS EXPECTED.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL
CLUSTERED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN.
 
THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRENGTHENING TO A
TROPICAL STORM.  ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN TO THE NORTH THE
SHEAR MAY LESSEN TEMPORARILY.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE ACCELERATING
CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/2100Z 28.2N  44.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     30/0600Z 29.1N  45.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     30/1800Z 31.3N  45.6W    40 KTS
36HR VT     31/0600Z 34.5N  43.8W    45 KTS
48HR VT     31/1800Z 38.5N  40.5W    40 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     01/1800Z...ABSORBED
 
 
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