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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST MON OCT 29 2001
 
SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE NEAR 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THIS 
SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER THE SYSTEM.  IF 
THIS IS THE CASE...THEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY FORECASTS MAY 
BE MORE REALISTIC.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR 
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO 45 KTS NEAR THE POINT OF RECURVATURE. AT 72 
HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE 
APPROACHING TROUGH.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL GIVE 30 KTS 
AND SHIP ELGJ8 AGAIN REPORTED AT 0600Z WITH A 30 KT SOUTHEAST WIND.  
THE SHIP WAS LOCATED ABOUT 90 NMI EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 

THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED.  THE INITIAL MOTION
IS 285/08.  AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO
RECURVE THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN 36 HOURS WHILE
ABSORBING IT INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0900Z 27.7N  42.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     29/1800Z 27.8N  43.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     30/0600Z 28.8N  45.3W    40 KTS
36HR VT     30/1800Z 31.0N  46.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     31/0600Z 34.0N  44.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     01/0600Z 42.0N  38.0W    20 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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