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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN OCT 28 2001
 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPOSED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE 
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION AMD DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS OF 1.0 FROM TAFB 
AND SAB SUGGEST THAT IT IS TIME TO DECLARE THE SYSTEM A SWIRL OF LOW 
CLOUDS AND DISCONTINUE ADVISORIES.  HOWEVER THE SHIP ELGJ8 ABOUT 90 
N MI EAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 30 KNOTS AND 13 FT SEAS AT 21Z.  SO 
ADVISORIES WILL BE CONTINUED FOR AT LEAST A WHILE LONGER.  IT IS 
NOTABLE THAT THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST STRENGTHENING TO 55 
AND 75 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  ONE DOES NOT EXPECT 
A SYSTEM THAT IS AS DISPLACED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION AS THIS ONE 
TO STRENGTHEN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY KEEPS THE 
WIND SPEED AT 30 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN AND UKMET MODELS.

THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 
265/09.  AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO 
RECURVE THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN 48 HOURS WHILE 
ABSORBING IT INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. 
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0300Z 27.2N  41.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     29/1200Z 27.2N  43.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     30/0000Z 27.7N  45.2W    30 KTS
36HR VT     30/1200Z 29.3N  46.3W    30 KTS
48HR VT     31/0000Z 31.7N  45.8W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     01/0000Z 40.0N  40.5W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

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