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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN OCT 28 2001
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH WESTWARD AHEAD OF 
THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. AS SUCH...THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION 
NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER...AND THE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON THE 
APPEARANCE OF A SUBTROPICAL LOW DUE TO CONVECTIVE BANDING BEING WELL 
AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED...I HAVE OPTED TO HOLD THE 
INTENSITY AT 30 KT BASED ON A 24 KT REPORT FROM SHIP EJGJ8 LOCATED 
ABOUT 120 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH WAS OUTSIDE OF ANY 
CONVECTION.  ALSO...EXPERIMENTAL AMSU-B DATA FROM UW-CIMMS IS 
INDICATING A PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 998 MB.  WHILE THE PRESSURE 
SEEMS TO BE TOO LOW...THE ALGORITHM IS OBVIOUSLY STILL PICKING UP ON 
A SIGNIFICANT WARM CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH ADDS 
CREDENCE TO KEEPING IT AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM ON THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  TD-14 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AND THEN GRADUALLY SLOW
AND MAKE A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  BY 72
HOURS... AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE AND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD
ACT TO ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
LOW...AND POSSIBLY EVEN ABSORBING IT INTO A FRONTAL LOW.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 24
HOURS...AND THEN TO THE LEFT OF TRACK AT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE
EXPECTED SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH.  THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND NOGAPS
MODELS.

SINCE TD-14 IS MOVING TOWARD WARMER SSTS OF 27C AND HIGHER...THE 
PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST TREND WAS MAINTAINED...WHICH IS STILL 
LOWER THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODEL FORECASTS. HOWEVER... 
IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IN 
THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN THE WARM CORE STRUCTURE WILL COLLAPSE AND 
THE CYCLONE WILL DEGENERATE INTO A SUBTROPICAL LOW OR DISSIPATE 
COMPLETELY...PERHAPS BY THE NEXT ADVISORY.
 
NOTE...12 FT SEAS RADII WERE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY 
PRODUCT BASED ON THE 13 FT SEA HEIGHT REPORTED BY SHIP EJGJ8.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/2100Z 27.5N  41.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 27.5N  43.5W    25 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 27.7N  45.6W    30 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 28.3N  47.1W    35 KTS
48HR VT     30/1800Z 30.0N  47.2W    35 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     31/1800Z 36.0N  44.5W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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