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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN OCT 28 2001
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING UPPER-LEVEL 
SHEARING FROM THE NORTH AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS MOVED 
WESTWARD FASTER THAN THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS.  THE RESULT IS 
THAT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DISPLACED WELL TO THE 
SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  ALSO...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES 
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS OCCURRING.  DESPITE THE 
NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...THE INTENSITY 
IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES OF 30 KT...CI2.0... A 30 KT REPORT 
FROM SHIP EJGJ8 LOCATED 80 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 28/09Z... 
AND A 28/0758Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATING 30 KT UNCONTAMINATED 
WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO 
TRACK MAINLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE IT GETS 
STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  BY 36 
HOURS...AN APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD ACT 
TO GRADUALLY TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD.  BY 48 HOURS...THE 
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND 
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...AND POSSIBLY BECOME ABSORBED BY OR MERGE WITH 
A FRONTAL LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST TRACK AND IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL MODEL.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PREDICATED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT DEEP 
CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE DRY SLOT OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER 
IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE A MOIST TONGUE IS WRAPPING IN 
FROM THE EAST SIDE.  THE INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR 
SOME PERIODIC BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE 
LOW-LEVEL CENTER LATER TONIGHT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS 
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS THE 
SHIPS OR GFDL INTENSITY MODELS...WHICH BRING THE SYSTEM TO A STRONG 
TROPICAL STORM OR MINIMAL HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY.

NOTE...12 FT SEAS RADII WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCT 
BASED ON THE 14 FT SEA HEIGHT REPORTED BY SHIP EJGJ8 AND ALSO BASED 
ON THE LARGE WIND FIELD INDICATED IN THE QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/1500Z 27.6N  40.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     29/0000Z 27.6N  41.8W    25 KTS
24HR VT     29/1200Z 27.7N  43.6W    30 KTS
36HR VT     30/0000Z 28.3N  45.2W    35 KTS
48HR VT     30/1200Z 29.8N  46.3W    40 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     31/1200Z 34.0N  45.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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