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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN OCT 28 2001

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME EXPOSED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST HAVE TILTED THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST.  A PARTIAL MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE CENTER AND THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION IS
LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS MID-LEVEL CENTER.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 30 KNOTS AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY.  THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION BECAUSE OF LOW FORECAST SHEAR VALUES ALONG THE
TRACK.

THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER GIVES A GOOD INITIAL POSITION.  THIS
POSITION IS SOMEWHAT WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS 6 HOURLY VALUE.
BASED UPON THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE PREVIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES
WERE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH A LARGER MARGIN OF ERROR THE
DEPRESSION MAY HAVE BEEN MOVING ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE AND THE
PREVIOUS VALUES ARE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD.  THIS GIVES AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/08.  THE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS
THE SAME.  THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH.  THE FORECAST IS FOR THIS RIDGE TO GRADUALLY
BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO TURN
THE TRACK FROM WESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 27.5N  39.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 27.5N  40.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 27.5N  42.2W    35 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 27.7N  44.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 28.7N  45.4W    45 KTS
72HR VT     31/0600Z 32.0N  46.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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