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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/06.  THE FORECAST SCENARIO IS 
ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF 
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH IN 
THE WESTERLIES.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE TRACK FROM WESTWARD TO 
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

THE CIRCULATION IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED NORTH/SOUTH AND THE DECREASING  
DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION.  THERE MIGHT BE MORE THAN ONE LOW LEVEL CENTER.  THE 
SHEAR IS SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z AVIATION ANALYSIS WHICH SHOWS 50 KNOT 
WINDS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE DEPRESSION AT 200 MB.  DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 30 KNOTS AND A RECENT SSMI PASS SHOWS 
A SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED PATTERN.  IN CONTRAST A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS 
SHOWS 35 KNOTS UNCONTAMINATED AND 40 KNOTS CONTAMINATED WIND SPEEDS 
AND A RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 998 MB.  THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS WITH UNCERTAINTY.  THE FORECAST IS TO 
50 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS APPROXIMATELY FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH 
DOES NOT SHOW MUCH VERTICAL SHEAR.  NEITHER DOES THE CIMSS SATELLITE 
WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS.  ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM THE GFDL 
MODEL BRINGING THE WINDS TO 76 KNOTS WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS SLOW 
WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 27.8N  37.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 27.9N  39.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 27.9N  40.9W    35 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 28.1N  42.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 28.6N  44.1W    45 KTS
72HR VT     31/0000Z 32.5N  46.0W    50 KTS

 
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