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TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 15 2001
 
KAREN HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NOVA SCOTIA.  THE PENN STATE PHASE 
ANALYSIS USING THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THAT KAREN HAS ACQUIRED A 
COLD CORE AND IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.  THERE ARE STILL SOME 35 
KNOT WIND SPEED OBSERVATIONS OVER WATER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 
CENTER.

THE 06Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS KAREN LOSING ITS IDENTITY IN 12 TO 24 
HOURS AS IT MERGES WITH A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM 
WILL BE CONTAINED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE MARINE 
PREDICTION CENTER.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/1500Z 45.2N  64.1W    40 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT     16/0000Z 48.0N  63.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     16/1200Z...MERGED WITH TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES
 
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