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TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 15 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS DECREASING NEAR THE
CENTER...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 00Z SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS WELL.  KAREN SHOULD WEAKEN OVER COLD
WATER AS IT APPROACHES NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AFTER MAKING LANDFALL.  WITHIN 24
HOURS THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY.

AFTER MOVING NNW AROUND A SMALL MID-LEVEL HIGH NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE...LATEST IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KAREN HAS TURNED BACK TO THE
NORTH AND ACCELERATED.  NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED TURN
TO THE RIGHT AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 43.2N  65.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 46.0N  63.5W    35 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     16/0600Z...ABSORBED/EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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